Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McCarron wins 57.7% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 53.4% vs Bozak 46.2% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McCarron 59.2%
Defensive zone
McCarron 83.1%
Neutral zone
McCarron 71.9%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 68.6%
68.6%
31.4%
McCarron
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
McCarron
Bozak
Last 8: McCarron 5-3 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
1
2
McCarron
Bozak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
0
McCarron
Bozak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
3
1
McCarron
Bozak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (308)
46.7% (338)
+10.8%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
50.0% (6)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
32.6% (43)
32.6% (43)
+0.0%
On even strength, McCarron has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. McCarron is 57.7% vs right-shot opponents (130).
McCarron shoots right. Bozak is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Home / Away
McCarron
Bozak
Home
48.3% (147)
47.9% (194)
Away
58.7% (206)
42.5% (193)
By Period
McCarron
Bozak
P1
53.4%
40.2%
P2
59.5%
51.4%
P3
50.0%
43.1%
Final 5 min
54.8%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
54.4%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2022 | 3 | 18:55 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 3 | 18:48 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 3 | 18:27 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 05:12 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 04:58 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 17, 2022 | 2 | 09:07 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 17, 2022 | 1 | 05:12 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 17, 2022 | 1 | 02:34 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |