Scouting Report
Tyler Bozak holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Santorelli on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Santorelli wins 45.6% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Santorelli 46.2% vs Bozak 52.5% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bozak 65.6%
Defensive zone
Bozak 63.8%
Neutral zone
Bozak 59.9%
Result
Tyler Bozak favored at 61.8%
38.2%
61.8%
Santorelli
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Santorelli
Bozak
Last 7: Santorelli 4-3 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
1
Santorelli
Bozak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Santorelli
Bozak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Santorelli
3
1
Santorelli
Bozak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Santorelli
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
45.1% (348)
51.7% (913)
-6.6%
Power Play
42.4% (33)
55.9% (211)
-13.5%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
54.9% (51)
-54.9%
On penalty kill, Bozak has a +54.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Santorelli is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (136).
Santorelli shoots right. Bozak is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
Santorelli
Bozak
Home
49.5% (188)
52.8% (615)
Away
41.3% (201)
52.5% (583)
By Period
Santorelli
Bozak
P1
48.8%
52.5%
P2
40.7%
51.1%
P3
47.0%
55.2%
Final 5 min
51.0%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Santorelli
40.0%▼
46.5%
45.2%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mike Santorelli |
| Dec 27, 2011 | 2 | 16:59 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 27, 2011 | 2 | 12:08 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 27, 2011 | 2 | 11:57 | Defensive | Mike Santorelli |
| Dec 27, 2011 | 2 | 04:13 | Neutral | Mike Santorelli |
| Nov 8, 2011 | 3 | 17:49 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 8, 2011 | 1 | 12:01 | Neutral | Mike Santorelli |