Scouting Report
Jesse Winchester holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Winchester on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Winchester wins 57.5% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Winchester 54.7% vs Seguin 49.6% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Winchester 63.0%
Defensive zone
Winchester 88.9%
Neutral zone
Winchester 76.7%
Result
Jesse Winchester favored at 78.5%
78.5%
21.5%
Winchester
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Winchester
Seguin
Last 5: Winchester 4-1 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Winchester
2
0
Winchester
Seguin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Winchester
2
1
Winchester
Seguin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Winchester
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (469)
48.9% (274)
+7.2%
Power Play
41.7% (12)
53.8% (26)
-12.1%
Penalty Kill
57.4% (61)
50.0% (2)
+7.4%
On power play, Seguin has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Winchester is 57.5% vs right-shot opponents (167).
Winchester shoots right. Seguin is 52.8% vs right-shot opponents (72).
Home / Away
Winchester
Seguin
Home
56.9% (299)
53.5% (129)
Away
54.1% (246)
46.6% (174)
By Period
Winchester
Seguin
P1
49.7%
52.3%
P2
59.8%
48.1%
P3
56.4%
47.8%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.0%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Winchester
44.0%▼
50.5%
55.6%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2011 | 3 | 09:23 | Offensive | Jesse Winchester |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 2 | 10:21 | Defensive | Jesse Winchester |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 3 | 02:45 | Defensive | Jesse Winchester |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 1 | 12:13 | Offensive | Jesse Winchester |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 1 | 04:00 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |