Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Fiddler on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Fiddler shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs Fiddler 51.7% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 55.0%
Defensive zone
Fiddler 76.2%
Neutral zone
Fiddler 65.2%
Result
Vernon Fiddler favored at 67.9%
32.1%
67.9%
Pavelski
Fiddler
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Pavelski
Fiddler
Last 8: Pavelski 2-6 Fiddler
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fiddler
0
2
Pavelski
Fiddler
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fiddler
2
4
Pavelski
Fiddler
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Fiddler
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (785)
51.8% (819)
+3.2%
Power Play
62.7% (201)
37.9% (29)
+24.8%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (161)
53.8% (249)
-1.6%
On power play, Pavelski has a +24.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Fiddler shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (826).
Pavelski shoots right. Fiddler is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (376).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Fiddler
Home
58.1% (580)
51.1% (546)
Away
53.8% (567)
52.6% (551)
By Period
Pavelski
Fiddler
P1
53.4%
51.3%
P2
58.6%
53.7%
P3
56.4%
51.3%
OT
36.8%
22.2%
Final 5 min
57.4%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Fiddler
54.0%▼
58.5%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2015 | 1 | 08:58 | Neutral | Vernon Fiddler |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 3 | 15:55 | Neutral | Vernon Fiddler |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 2 | 06:15 | Neutral | Vernon Fiddler |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 2 | 03:38 | Neutral | Vernon Fiddler |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 1 | 03:42 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 8, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 8, 2014 | 1 | 10:51 | Defensive | Vernon Fiddler |
| Nov 8, 2014 | 1 | 10:46 | Defensive | Vernon Fiddler |