Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.0% vs 49.8%). Look for MacKenzie on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKenzie wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Rask shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 50.0% vs Rask 49.8% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rask 75.6%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 86.1%
Neutral zone
Rask 51.7%
Result
Victor Rask favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
MacKenzie
Rask
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
MacKenzie
Rask
Last 5: MacKenzie 4-1 Rask
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
1
0
MacKenzie
Rask
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
3
1
MacKenzie
Rask
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Rask
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (564)
48.7% (809)
+3.8%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
60.0% (90)
+17.8%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (199)
47.4% (19)
-5.7%
On power play, MacKenzie has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rask shoots left. MacKenzie is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (467).
MacKenzie shoots left. Rask is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (582).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Rask
Home
52.7% (404)
51.4% (420)
Away
47.0% (368)
48.4% (498)
By Period
MacKenzie
Rask
P1
50.0%
49.1%
P2
50.0%
50.2%
P3
49.4%
50.3%
OT
80.0%
41.7%
Final 5 min
55.0%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
50.0%
Rask
60.0%▲
49.5%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2017 | 1 | 11:51 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 3 | 04:59 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Nov 27, 2016 | 2 | 18:27 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 27, 2016 | 1 | 10:54 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 27, 2016 | 1 | 02:40 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |