Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (57.4% vs 56.5%). Look for Kesler on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Kesler wins 58.9% vs left-shot opponents — Sobotka shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kesler 55.6% vs Sobotka 55.4% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Kesler leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Kesler 50.8%
Defensive zone
Kesler 51.3%
Neutral zone
Kesler 50.8%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 51.0%
51.0%
49.0%
Kesler
Sobotka
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
3
(12 meetings)
9
3
Kesler
Sobotka
Last 10: Kesler 8-2 Sobotka
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
3
1
Kesler
Sobotka
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sobotka
1
2
Kesler
Sobotka
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
5
0
Kesler
Sobotka
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kesler
Sobotka
Edge
Even Strength
57.6% (231)
57.0% (398)
+0.6%
Power Play
65.5% (29)
63.9% (36)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (43)
50.0% (72)
+1.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sobotka shoots left. Kesler is 58.9% vs left-shot opponents (246).
Kesler shoots right. Sobotka is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (153).
Home / Away
Kesler
Sobotka
Home
58.8% (114)
58.3% (252)
Away
56.6% (189)
54.7% (254)
By Period
Kesler
Sobotka
P1
60.8%
55.6%
P2
60.0%
58.5%
P3
52.5%
56.9%
OT
66.7%
14.3%
Final 5 min
58.9%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
57.4%
Sobotka
50.0%▼
52.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2013 | OT | 02:16 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 16, 2013 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 3 | 03:51 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 2 | 05:13 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 2 | 05:05 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 1 | 15:50 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 1 | 02:31 | Offensive | Vladimir Sobotka |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 17, 2013 | 3 | 14:21 | Defensive | Vladimir Sobotka |
| Feb 17, 2013 | 3 | 10:08 | Defensive | Vladimir Sobotka |
| Feb 17, 2013 | 1 | 03:32 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |