Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.8% vs 55.7%). Look for Sobotka on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hertl wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Sobotka shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 54.3% vs Sobotka 52.4% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 51.5%
Defensive zone
Sobotka 56.5%
Neutral zone
Sobotka 56.2%
Result
Vladimir Sobotka favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Hertl
Sobotka
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Hertl
Sobotka
Last 5: Hertl 2-3 Sobotka
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sobotka
1
2
Hertl
Sobotka
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
0
Hertl
Sobotka
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sobotka
0
1
Hertl
Sobotka
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Sobotka
Edge
Even Strength
54.7% (570)
54.5% (55)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (77)
60.0% (15)
-5.5%
On penalty kill, Sobotka has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sobotka shoots left. Hertl is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (498).
Hertl shoots left. Sobotka is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (57).
Home / Away
Hertl
Sobotka
Home
56.2% (379)
67.9% (28)
Away
53.5% (411)
47.6% (42)
By Period
Hertl
Sobotka
P1
53.4%
64.0%
P2
52.7%
61.1%
P3
57.6%
44.4%
Final 5 min
53.5%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Sobotka
50.0%▼
52.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2019 | 2 | 15:27 | Offensive | Vladimir Sobotka |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Vladimir Sobotka |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 1 | 19:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 1 | 14:10 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 1 | 04:07 | Offensive | Vladimir Sobotka |