Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 51.3% vs Johnston 49.1% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Johnston leads 13-8 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 58.9%
Defensive zone
Johnston 80.3%
Neutral zone
Johnston 63.6%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 64.9%
35.1%
64.9%
Monahan
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
13
(21 meetings)
8
13
Monahan
Johnston
Last 10: Monahan 3-7 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
3
Monahan
Johnston
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
6
Monahan
Johnston
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
6
4
Monahan
Johnston
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (11,356)
49.3% (2,189)
+1.8%
Power Play
53.7% (2,580)
52.6% (173)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
46.0% (766)
44.7% (237)
+1.3%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Monahan is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (5,401).
Monahan shoots left. Johnston is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,967).
Home / Away
Monahan
Johnston
Home
52.4% (7,358)
49.2% (1,319)
Away
50.2% (7,344)
49.0% (1,280)
By Period
Monahan
Johnston
P1
50.9%
50.1%
P2
51.7%
48.3%
P3
51.0%
48.8%
OT
53.5%
51.6%
Final 5 min
50.3%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 11:19 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 15:44 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 11:10 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 13:45 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 06:12 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:12 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 03:37 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 00:07 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 11:13 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 14:29 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 19:22 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 08:48 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 08:34 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 15:24 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 00:11 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |