Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Barkov wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 46.5% vs Smith 46.2% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 51.5%
Defensive zone
Smith 59.8%
Neutral zone
Barkov 53.4%
Result
Zack Smith favored at 50.4%
49.6%
50.4%
Barkov
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Barkov
Smith
Last 6: Barkov 1-5 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
2
Barkov
Smith
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
1
Barkov
Smith
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
1
2
Barkov
Smith
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (856)
44.7% (190)
+1.7%
Power Play
45.0% (120)
40.0% (10)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
45.2% (31)
-2.9%
On power play, Barkov has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Barkov is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (612).
Barkov shoots left. Smith is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (165).
Home / Away
Barkov
Smith
Home
46.7% (561)
46.8% (111)
Away
45.4% (441)
42.5% (120)
By Period
Barkov
Smith
P1
46.6%
44.6%
P2
48.5%
43.6%
P3
43.2%
46.2%
OT
42.9%
40.0%
Final 5 min
41.0%
52.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
46.1%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2014 | 3 | 13:17 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Nov 28, 2014 | 3 | 07:31 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Nov 28, 2014 | 3 | 04:52 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Nov 28, 2014 | 2 | 04:16 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 28, 2014 | 1 | 16:10 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Oct 13, 2014 | 3 | 04:07 | Offensive | Zack Smith |