Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Backes wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 55.3% vs Smith 49.2% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 52.8%
Defensive zone
Smith 87.0%
Neutral zone
Smith 63.6%
Result
Zack Smith favored at 53.8%
46.2%
53.8%
Backes
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Backes
Smith
Last 6: Backes 2-4 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
2
3
Backes
Smith
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
1
Backes
Smith
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (228)
50.9% (666)
+4.8%
Power Play
65.2% (66)
70.0% (10)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (15)
39.6% (144)
+0.4%
On even strength, Backes has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Backes is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (234).
Backes shoots right. Smith is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (298).
Home / Away
Backes
Smith
Home
55.9% (188)
50.9% (405)
Away
58.7% (121)
47.5% (415)
By Period
Backes
Smith
P1
53.0%
47.1%
P2
56.6%
49.6%
P3
60.8%
50.4%
Final 5 min
55.6%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
57.0%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2019 | 3 | 18:37 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 2 | 13:17 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 9, 2018 | 2 | 06:51 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 3 | 08:55 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 3 | 02:09 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 1 | 02:19 | Offensive | David Backes |