Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on defensive-zone draws (58% H2H, 12 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Smith 50.6% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Smith leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Smith 51.9%
Defensive zone
Smith 83.1%
Neutral zone
Smith 64.0%
Result
Zack Smith favored at 72.4%
27.6%
72.4%
Duchene
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
12
(20 meetings)
8
12
Duchene
Smith
Last 10: Duchene 4-6 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
2
3
Duchene
Smith
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
5
7
Duchene
Smith
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
1
2
Duchene
Smith
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
51.6% (5,265)
+2.3%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
51.2% (342)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
45.3% (985)
+3.8%
On power play, Duchene has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Duchene shoots left. Smith is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (4,205).
Home / Away
Duchene
Smith
Home
55.6% (6,411)
52.5% (3,289)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
48.7% (3,310)
By Period
Duchene
Smith
P1
54.5%
49.9%
P2
54.5%
50.0%
P3
53.4%
51.9%
OT
56.3%
51.6%
Final 5 min
53.7%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2020 | 1 | 05:11 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Feb 22, 2019 | 3 | 04:05 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 11, 2017 | 3 | 09:03 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 11, 2017 | 1 | 19:04 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2017 | 2 | 06:16 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 2, 2017 | 2 | 06:08 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2017 | 1 | 14:28 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 25, 2015 | 2 | 04:42 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 3 | 07:32 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 2 | 11:00 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 2 | 00:52 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 1 | 10:22 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 1 | 06:38 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 16, 2014 | 3 | 11:43 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 16, 2014 | 3 | 11:34 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 16, 2014 | 1 | 03:21 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Jan 8, 2014 | 3 | 14:53 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 8, 2014 | 2 | 01:37 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 8, 2014 | 1 | 06:14 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Oct 13, 2011 | 3 | 06:52 | Neutral | Zack Smith |