Scouting Report
Zack Smith holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKinnon wins 42.2% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 44.2% vs Smith 49.2% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 57.6%
Defensive zone
Smith 84.3%
Neutral zone
Smith 72.5%
Result
Zack Smith favored at 65.1%
34.9%
65.1%
MacKinnon
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
MacKinnon
Smith
Last 9: MacKinnon 6-3 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Smith
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Smith
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
1
MacKinnon
Smith
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
42.8% (1,039)
50.9% (666)
-8.1%
Power Play
50.8% (118)
70.0% (10)
-19.2%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (26)
39.6% (144)
+6.6%
On power play, Smith has a +19.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. MacKinnon is 42.2% vs left-shot opponents (889).
MacKinnon shoots right. Smith is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (298).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Smith
Home
48.0% (586)
50.9% (405)
Away
39.5% (597)
47.5% (415)
By Period
MacKinnon
Smith
P1
46.1%
47.1%
P2
41.5%
49.6%
P3
43.8%
50.4%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
47.1%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
43.7%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2019 | 3 | 14:43 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 3 | 07:49 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 2 | 16:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 2 | 09:59 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 2 | 07:01 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 1 | 02:18 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 1 | 10:56 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |