Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Fantilli wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Lowry shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 42.0% vs Lowry 51.6% (-10.6%)
H2H factor
Lowry leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 88.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 55.8%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 73.5%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 70.8%
70.8%
29.2%
Fantilli
Lowry
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Fantilli
Lowry
Last 10: Fantilli 3-7 Lowry
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
3
1
Fantilli
Lowry
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
0
3
Fantilli
Lowry
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
0
3
Fantilli
Lowry
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Lowry
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (934)
53.7% (933)
-13.0%
Power Play
52.1% (73)
60.7% (28)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (12)
42.7% (227)
-26.0%
On penalty kill, Lowry has a +26.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lowry shoots left. Fantilli is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (687).
Fantilli shoots left. Lowry is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (840).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Lowry
Home
44.1% (488)
53.0% (583)
Away
38.6% (531)
50.6% (605)
By Period
Fantilli
Lowry
P1
42.0%
52.1%
P2
43.0%
51.8%
P3
39.3%
52.3%
OT
11.1%
25.0%
Final 5 min
38.3%
53.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
41.2%
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 12:34 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 07:15 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 19:47 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 16:28 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 11:51 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 17:32 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 13:40 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 10:41 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 07:01 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 06:56 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |