Scouting Report
Alex Turcotte holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 50.0% vs Turcotte 53.2% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 71.6%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 50.3%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 62.4%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 59.4%
59.4%
40.6%
Fantilli
Turcotte
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Fantilli
Turcotte
Last 5: Fantilli 1-4 Turcotte
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Turcotte
0
1
Fantilli
Turcotte
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Turcotte
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Turcotte
0
2
Fantilli
Turcotte
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Turcotte
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (826)
53.5% (460)
-3.9%
Power Play
52.0% (98)
70.0% (10)
-18.0%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
100.0% (1)
-45.5%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +45.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Turcotte shoots left. Fantilli is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (615).
Fantilli shoots left. Turcotte is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Turcotte
Home
50.8% (472)
53.2% (263)
Away
49.0% (463)
54.8% (208)
By Period
Fantilli
Turcotte
P1
47.7%
57.0%
P2
52.7%
59.6%
P3
49.8%
44.1%
Final 5 min
51.2%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
48.0%▬
47.0%
49.9%
Turcotte
38.0%▼
52.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:45 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:26 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 2 | 16:27 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 2 | 04:59 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 1 | 18:16 | Defensive | Alex Turcotte |