Scouting Report
Alex Turcotte holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Fantilli wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Turcotte shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.4% vs Turcotte 51.3% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 68.1%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 64.0%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 64.4%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 65.0%
65.0%
35.0%
Fantilli
Turcotte
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Fantilli
Turcotte
Last 5: Fantilli 1-4 Turcotte
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Turcotte
0
1
Fantilli
Turcotte
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Turcotte
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Turcotte
0
2
Fantilli
Turcotte
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Turcotte
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,134)
51.1% (656)
-6.4%
Power Play
52.0% (204)
61.9% (21)
-9.9%
Penalty Kill
32.0% (25)
100.0% (1)
-68.0%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +68.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Turcotte shoots left. Fantilli is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,569).
Fantilli shoots left. Turcotte is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Turcotte
Home
47.3% (1,178)
51.7% (346)
Away
43.0% (1,185)
51.2% (332)
By Period
Fantilli
Turcotte
P1
44.0%
53.8%
P2
46.2%
53.8%
P3
45.9%
46.5%
Final 5 min
43.9%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.2%
Turcotte
40.0%▼
53.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:45 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:26 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 2 | 16:27 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 2 | 04:59 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 1 | 18:16 | Defensive | Alex Turcotte |