Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 50.6% vs Matthews 57.9% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 57.3%
42.7%
57.3%
Fantilli
Matthews
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Fantilli
Matthews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
0
3
Fantilli
Matthews
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
0
1
Fantilli
Matthews
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Matthews
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (638)
58.6% (715)
-8.6%
Power Play
56.9% (58)
65.7% (35)
-8.8%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (10)
57.7% (71)
+2.3%
On power play, Matthews has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthews shoots left. Fantilli is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (465).
Fantilli shoots left. Matthews is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (536).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Matthews
Home
53.0% (334)
60.0% (475)
Away
48.7% (372)
57.2% (346)
By Period
Fantilli
Matthews
P1
48.7%
58.3%
P2
53.9%
58.4%
P3
49.8%
59.4%
OT
28.6%
70.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
58.0%▲
51.0%
50.7%
Matthews
64.0%▲
60.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 15:21 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 09:44 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 09:36 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 3 | 15:45 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |