Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +15.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Fantilli wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Matthews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 42.0% vs Matthews 56.3% (-15.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 73.3%
Defensive zone
Matthews 58.2%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 67.6%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 61.8%
61.8%
38.2%
Fantilli
Matthews
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Fantilli
Matthews
Last 8: Fantilli 3-5 Matthews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
0
1
Fantilli
Matthews
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Matthews
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
3
Fantilli
Matthews
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Matthews
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (934)
58.3% (943)
-17.6%
Power Play
52.1% (73)
55.7% (61)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (12)
50.7% (219)
-34.0%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +34.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthews shoots left. Fantilli is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (687).
Fantilli shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Matthews
Home
44.1% (488)
59.1% (528)
Away
38.6% (531)
55.1% (695)
By Period
Fantilli
Matthews
P1
42.0%
56.2%
P2
43.0%
58.1%
P3
39.3%
56.4%
OT
11.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
38.3%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
41.2%
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2025 | 3 | 11:05 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 22, 2025 | 2 | 17:14 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 22, 2025 | 2 | 17:02 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 22, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 22, 2025 | 1 | 06:02 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 22, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 02:00 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |