Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 50.6% vs Larkin 52.7% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Fantilli leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 59.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 72.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 55.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
Fantilli
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Fantilli
Larkin
Last 10: Fantilli 7-3 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
6
0
Fantilli
Larkin
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
3
Fantilli
Larkin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
3
Fantilli
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (638)
52.4% (773)
-2.4%
Power Play
56.9% (58)
58.6% (220)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (10)
47.3% (146)
+12.7%
On penalty kill, Fantilli has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Fantilli is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (465).
Fantilli shoots left. Larkin is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (762).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Larkin
Home
53.0% (334)
51.9% (615)
Away
48.7% (372)
54.2% (524)
By Period
Fantilli
Larkin
P1
48.7%
52.3%
P2
53.9%
53.2%
P3
49.8%
52.6%
OT
28.6%
63.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
58.0%▲
51.0%
50.7%
Larkin
50.0%▬
50.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 13:36 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 13:16 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:06 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 16:22 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 11:03 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 07:22 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 05:31 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 05:22 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 00:28 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 09:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |