Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Sourdif on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Fantilli wins 53.9% vs right-shot opponents — Sourdif shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 50.0% vs Sourdif 45.9% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Sourdif leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 53.7%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 85.3%
Neutral zone
Sourdif 61.3%
Result
Justin Sourdif favored at 67.1%
32.9%
67.1%
Fantilli
Sourdif
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
10
(16 meetings)
6
10
Fantilli
Sourdif
Last 10: Fantilli 3-7 Sourdif
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
4
1
Fantilli
Sourdif
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
1
6
Fantilli
Sourdif
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sourdif
1
3
Fantilli
Sourdif
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Sourdif
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (842)
44.6% (556)
+5.0%
Power Play
52.5% (99)
50.0% (24)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
61.5% (13)
-7.0%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sourdif shoots right. Fantilli is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (330).
Fantilli shoots left. Sourdif is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (418).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Sourdif
Home
50.8% (472)
43.6% (321)
Away
49.2% (480)
47.1% (272)
By Period
Fantilli
Sourdif
P1
47.8%
43.1%
P2
52.7%
43.9%
P3
50.0%
48.6%
OT
30.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
44.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
50.0%
Sourdif
32.0%▼
40.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 06:08 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 15:28 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:50 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 17:00 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 12:15 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 08:58 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 01:33 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:45 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 19:45 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 12:59 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 12:55 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 12:48 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 1 | 17:59 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 1 | 00:49 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 1 | 00:30 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |