Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.4% vs Aho 51.2% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 10-7 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 60.5%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 58.3%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 60.1%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 59.8%
59.8%
40.2%
Fantilli
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
10
(17 meetings)
7
10
Fantilli
Aho
Last 10: Fantilli 5-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
5
Fantilli
Aho
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
4
Fantilli
Aho
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fantilli
4
1
Fantilli
Aho
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,134)
50.1% (6,619)
-5.4%
Power Play
52.0% (204)
58.9% (1,310)
-6.9%
Penalty Kill
32.0% (25)
46.3% (464)
-14.3%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Fantilli is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,569).
Fantilli shoots left. Aho is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (5,305).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Aho
Home
47.3% (1,178)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
43.0% (1,185)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
Fantilli
Aho
P1
44.0%
51.1%
P2
46.2%
52.0%
P3
45.9%
50.7%
OT
24.1%
48.9%
Final 5 min
43.9%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.2%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 18:35 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 11:56 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 13:35 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 12:59 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 06:19 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 14:27 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 08:32 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 05:36 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 05:31 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 01:24 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 1 | 15:22 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 08:09 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 2 | 18:08 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 2 | 08:41 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 2 | 04:52 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 2 | 04:46 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 1 | 16:03 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |