Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Fantilli wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Lowry shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 44.9% vs Lowry 49.1% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 83.7%
Defensive zone
Lowry 65.9%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 63.6%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 57.1%
57.1%
42.9%
Fantilli
Lowry
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Fantilli
Lowry
Last 6: Fantilli 1-5 Lowry
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
1
0
Fantilli
Lowry
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
0
2
Fantilli
Lowry
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
0
3
Fantilli
Lowry
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Lowry
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (358)
49.3% (1,064)
-6.0%
Power Play
50.0% (32)
67.7% (65)
-17.7%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (2)
42.6% (251)
-42.6%
On penalty kill, Lowry has a +42.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lowry shoots left. Fantilli is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Fantilli shoots left. Lowry is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (968).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Lowry
Home
46.8% (218)
50.2% (671)
Away
39.7% (174)
47.8% (709)
By Period
Fantilli
Lowry
P1
40.3%
48.4%
P2
38.1%
50.1%
P3
54.1%
47.8%
OT
30.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
38.9%
43.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
43.6%
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2024 | 3 | 07:04 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 3 | 06:45 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 13:25 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 10:50 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 00:45 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 1 | 13:58 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |