Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Lowry shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.4% vs Lowry 51.5% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Lowry leads 16-10 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 89.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 54.2%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 78.8%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 69.9%
69.9%
30.1%
Fantilli
Lowry
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
16
(26 meetings)
10
16
Fantilli
Lowry
Last 10: Fantilli 6-4 Lowry
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
4
2
Fantilli
Lowry
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
8
Fantilli
Lowry
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
5
6
Fantilli
Lowry
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Lowry
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,134)
52.8% (9,130)
-8.1%
Power Play
52.0% (204)
57.1% (455)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
32.0% (25)
44.9% (2,139)
-12.9%
On penalty kill, Lowry has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lowry shoots left. Fantilli is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,569).
Fantilli shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,740).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Lowry
Home
47.3% (1,178)
53.5% (5,893)
Away
43.0% (1,185)
49.6% (5,831)
By Period
Fantilli
Lowry
P1
44.0%
51.5%
P2
46.2%
51.8%
P3
45.9%
51.4%
OT
24.1%
46.3%
Final 5 min
43.9%
52.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.2%
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 04:04 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 15:30 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 12:28 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 05:46 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 01:12 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 19:52 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 19:46 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 19:34 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 13:45 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 03:51 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 12:34 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 07:15 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 19:47 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 16:28 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 11:51 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 17:32 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 13:40 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 10:41 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 07:01 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 06:56 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |