Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +13.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tuch on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lowry wins 54.8% vs right-shot opponents — Tuch shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 55.1% vs Tuch 45.3% (+13.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tuch 87.8%
Defensive zone
Lowry 83.0%
Neutral zone
Lowry 50.5%
Result
Alex Tuch favored at 59.5%
40.5%
59.5%
Lowry
Tuch
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Lowry
Tuch
Last 5: Lowry 2-3 Tuch
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tuch
0
3
Lowry
Tuch
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Tuch
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Tuch
Edge
Even Strength
59.0% (527)
33.3% (81)
+25.7%
Power Play
44.2% (43)
50.6% (83)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
44.6% (101)
100.0% (1)
-55.4%
On penalty kill, Tuch has a +55.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tuch shoots right. Lowry is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (270).
Lowry shoots left. Tuch is 37.2% vs left-shot opponents (129).
Home / Away
Lowry
Tuch
Home
57.9% (330)
40.0% (90)
Away
54.0% (341)
45.3% (75)
By Period
Lowry
Tuch
P1
55.8%
51.1%
P2
55.8%
40.6%
P3
56.1%
37.3%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
62.2%
35.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
55.9%
Tuch
42.0%▲
40.0%
42.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2017 | 3 | 12:56 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |
| Dec 1, 2017 | 3 | 12:44 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |
| Dec 1, 2017 | 1 | 19:38 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 1, 2017 | 1 | 13:25 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |
| Nov 10, 2017 | 1 | 11:59 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |