Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 50.4% vs Thornton 53.0% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 72.8%
Defensive zone
Lowry 80.5%
Neutral zone
Lowry 65.2%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 59.2%
59.2%
40.8%
Lowry
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Lowry
Thornton
Last 5: Lowry 2-3 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
2
Lowry
Thornton
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
1
Lowry
Thornton
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (523)
56.1% (41)
-4.7%
Power Play
56.7% (30)
59.3% (27)
-2.6%
On even strength, Thornton has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Lowry is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
Lowry shoots left. Thornton is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (42).
Home / Away
Lowry
Thornton
Home
50.3% (354)
56.3% (32)
Away
50.7% (361)
58.3% (36)
By Period
Lowry
Thornton
P1
48.5%
59.1%
P2
52.2%
54.2%
P3
50.9%
59.1%
Final 5 min
53.0%
64.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.5%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
57.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2021 | 1 | 04:34 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 15, 2021 | 3 | 14:57 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 2 | 09:35 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 2 | 03:33 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 1 | 12:10 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |