Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.5% vs Thornton 54.3% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 22-20 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 70.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 78.2%
Neutral zone
Lowry 53.1%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Lowry
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
22
(42 meetings)
20
22
Lowry
Thornton
Last 10: Lowry 4-6 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
8
Lowry
Thornton
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
9
3
Lowry
Thornton
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
9
11
Lowry
Thornton
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (9,130)
53.5% (6,640)
-0.7%
Power Play
57.1% (455)
57.2% (1,387)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (2,139)
56.7% (427)
-11.8%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,740).
Lowry shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Home / Away
Lowry
Thornton
Home
53.5% (5,893)
55.8% (4,271)
Away
49.6% (5,831)
52.8% (4,219)
By Period
Lowry
Thornton
P1
51.5%
55.0%
P2
51.8%
53.3%
P3
51.4%
54.4%
OT
46.3%
56.4%
Final 5 min
52.9%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.6%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2021 | 1 | 04:34 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 15, 2021 | 3 | 14:57 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 2 | 09:35 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 2 | 03:33 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 1 | 12:10 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 3 | 15:27 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 3 | 08:36 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 3 | 05:54 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 1 | 13:15 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 3 | 13:05 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 2 | 18:47 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 2 | 05:19 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 25, 2017 | 3 | 15:46 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 25, 2017 | 3 | 13:28 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 25, 2017 | 3 | 11:26 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 25, 2017 | 3 | 08:43 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 25, 2017 | 2 | 11:56 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 25, 2017 | 2 | 08:04 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 6, 2017 | 3 | 07:26 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |