Scouting Report
Joel Ward holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Ward on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Lowry wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Ward shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 46.7% vs Ward 48.4% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ward 53.2%
Defensive zone
Lowry 58.9%
Neutral zone
Lowry 51.1%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
Lowry
Ward
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Lowry
Ward
Last 7: Lowry 3-4 Ward
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
1
Lowry
Ward
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ward
1
3
Lowry
Ward
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Ward
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (666)
49.3% (353)
-2.8%
Power Play
57.1% (7)
69.0% (42)
-11.9%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (172)
34.7% (98)
+10.1%
On power play, Ward has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ward shoots right. Lowry is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (368).
Lowry shoots left. Ward is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (338).
Home / Away
Lowry
Ward
Home
49.9% (393)
48.4% (219)
Away
43.1% (452)
47.8% (274)
By Period
Lowry
Ward
P1
45.1%
43.0%
P2
44.8%
51.4%
P3
49.1%
50.0%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
46.2%
41.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
46.3%
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2016 | 3 | 16:11 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 7, 2016 | 2 | 15:30 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Jan 12, 2016 | 1 | 10:15 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Jan 12, 2016 | 1 | 07:07 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 2, 2016 | 1 | 16:12 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 2, 2016 | 1 | 09:03 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Jan 2, 2016 | 1 | 06:07 | Defensive | Joel Ward |