Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Ward on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 50.8% vs Ward 49.1% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Ward leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Ward 63.0%
Defensive zone
Lowry 60.3%
Neutral zone
Ward 51.2%
Result
Joel Ward favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Lowry
Ward
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Lowry
Ward
Last 10: Lowry 5-5 Ward
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ward
2
4
Lowry
Ward
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Lowry
Ward
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Ward
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Ward
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (936)
52.8% (339)
-1.4%
Power Play
54.1% (85)
48.5% (33)
+5.6%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (274)
33.3% (84)
+14.5%
On penalty kill, Lowry has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ward shoots right. Lowry is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (467).
Lowry shoots left. Ward is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Lowry
Ward
Home
52.9% (680)
53.4% (251)
Away
48.5% (615)
43.4% (205)
By Period
Lowry
Ward
P1
51.5%
49.4%
P2
51.5%
46.9%
P3
49.3%
50.3%
Final 5 min
50.0%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.8%
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2017 | 3 | 19:45 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 6, 2017 | 3 | 18:52 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Mar 6, 2017 | 3 | 16:51 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 6, 2017 | 3 | 14:28 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Mar 6, 2017 | 1 | 07:28 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Jan 24, 2017 | 3 | 04:50 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 24, 2017 | 1 | 17:23 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 24, 2017 | 1 | 03:59 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 24, 2017 | 1 | 01:28 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Jan 16, 2017 | 3 | 18:32 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Jan 16, 2017 | 3 | 11:41 | Neutral | Joel Ward |
| Jan 16, 2017 | 1 | 01:29 | Defensive | Joel Ward |