Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.4% vs Carlsson 45.0% (+9.5%)
H2H factor
Carlsson leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 74.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 75.2%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 56.0%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 57.9%
42.1%
57.9%
Lowry
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
9
(17 meetings)
8
9
Lowry
Carlsson
Last 10: Lowry 6-4 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
4
Lowry
Carlsson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Carlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
6
4
Lowry
Carlsson
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (675)
45.5% (661)
+9.9%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
46.3% (82)
+37.0%
Penalty Kill
40.4% (89)
33.3% (84)
+7.1%
On power play, Lowry has a +37.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Lowry shoots left. Carlsson is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Home / Away
Lowry
Carlsson
Home
54.5% (402)
42.5% (428)
Away
53.3% (368)
46.4% (399)
By Period
Lowry
Carlsson
P1
52.4%
45.4%
P2
56.0%
39.7%
P3
54.2%
48.5%
OT
40.0%
41.7%
Final 5 min
58.1%
39.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.9%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 16:03 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 08:08 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 08:52 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 04:11 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:58 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 08:25 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 02:54 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 00:47 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 19:19 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 15:27 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 05:58 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:08 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 06:01 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:09 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |