Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Celebrini on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.4% vs Celebrini 48.9% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Celebrini 57.8%
Defensive zone
Lowry 87.5%
Neutral zone
Lowry 72.0%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 63.7%
63.7%
36.3%
Lowry
Celebrini
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Lowry
Celebrini
Last 7: Lowry 5-2 Celebrini
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Celebrini
1
2
Lowry
Celebrini
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Celebrini
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Celebrini
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Celebrini
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (675)
48.2% (924)
+7.2%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
52.8% (108)
+30.5%
Penalty Kill
40.4% (89)
56.0% (25)
-15.6%
On power play, Lowry has a +30.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Celebrini shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Lowry shoots left. Celebrini is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (733).
Home / Away
Lowry
Celebrini
Home
54.5% (402)
47.8% (523)
Away
53.3% (368)
49.8% (534)
By Period
Lowry
Celebrini
P1
52.4%
47.8%
P2
56.0%
47.4%
P3
54.2%
51.1%
OT
40.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
58.1%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.9%
Celebrini
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | 3 | 06:41 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 2 | 01:43 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 1 | 14:39 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 3 | 15:44 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 19:35 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:37 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |