Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +12.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Dvorak on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kempe wins 42.3% vs left-shot opponents — Dvorak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 43.5% vs Dvorak 53.7% (-12.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kempe 56.2%
Defensive zone
Kempe 51.1%
Neutral zone
Kempe 53.5%
Result
Adrian Kempe favored at 53.9%
53.9%
46.1%
Kempe
Dvorak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Kempe
Dvorak
Last 9: Kempe 4-5 Dvorak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Kempe
Dvorak
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
1
2
Kempe
Dvorak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kempe
Dvorak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Dvorak
Edge
Even Strength
42.6% (671)
56.7% (203)
-14.1%
Power Play
42.0% (50)
50.0% (20)
-8.0%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (18)
0.0% (3)
+44.4%
On penalty kill, Kempe has a +44.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dvorak shoots left. Kempe is 42.3% vs left-shot opponents (487).
Kempe shoots left. Dvorak is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (163).
Home / Away
Kempe
Dvorak
Home
43.6% (369)
56.5% (138)
Away
41.6% (370)
53.4% (88)
By Period
Kempe
Dvorak
P1
40.0%
56.5%
P2
44.3%
57.6%
P3
43.6%
52.1%
OT
37.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
43.6%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
42.6%
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2019 | 2 | 19:59 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 2 | 05:07 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 2 | 04:55 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 2 | 02:05 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 2 | 01:58 | Defensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 3 | 15:34 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 3 | 03:20 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 2 | 00:48 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 1 | 17:17 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |