Scouting Report
Ryan Poehling holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kempe on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kempe wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 41.7% vs Poehling 47.4% (-11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kempe 83.6%
Defensive zone
Poehling 85.0%
Neutral zone
Poehling 58.4%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 50.7%
49.3%
50.7%
Kempe
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Kempe
Poehling
Last 6: Kempe 3-3 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
3
0
Kempe
Poehling
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
3
Kempe
Poehling
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
38.2% (102)
49.8% (626)
-11.6%
Power Play
30.6% (36)
58.3% (12)
-27.7%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
38.2% (207)
-13.2%
On power play, Poehling has a +27.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Kempe is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (84).
Kempe shoots left. Poehling is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Home / Away
Kempe
Poehling
Home
36.4% (66)
47.3% (404)
Away
35.5% (76)
46.9% (441)
By Period
Kempe
Poehling
P1
37.3%
53.5%
P2
36.7%
39.4%
P3
31.4%
49.1%
OT
42.9%
35.7%
Final 5 min
40.0%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
35.9%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
47.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | OT | 03:03 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 07:19 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 04:50 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 12:30 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 07:26 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 03:00 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |