Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +17.2% FO% edge overall. Kempe wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 41.7% vs Monahan 52.8% (-17.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 63.4%
Defensive zone
Monahan 88.3%
Neutral zone
Monahan 81.4%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 63.4%
36.6%
63.4%
Kempe
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Kempe
Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
1
0
Kempe
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
38.2% (102)
53.2% (823)
-15.0%
Power Play
30.6% (36)
55.3% (159)
-24.7%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
48.4% (95)
-23.4%
On power play, Monahan has a +24.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Kempe is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (84).
Kempe shoots left. Monahan is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (676).
Home / Away
Kempe
Monahan
Home
36.4% (66)
54.6% (529)
Away
35.5% (76)
51.6% (548)
By Period
Kempe
Monahan
P1
37.3%
49.0%
P2
36.7%
55.4%
P3
31.4%
53.6%
OT
42.9%
61.9%
Final 5 min
40.0%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
35.9%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2025 | 1 | 13:21 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |