Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Nash on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Barkov wins 55.5% vs right-shot opponents — Nash shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.4% vs Nash 51.7% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barkov 54.2%
Defensive zone
Nash 87.0%
Neutral zone
Nash 72.5%
Result
Riley Nash favored at 83.4%
16.6%
83.4%
Barkov
Nash
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Barkov
Nash
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nash
0
3
Barkov
Nash
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nash
0
1
Barkov
Nash
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Nash
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (870)
54.1% (292)
+2.9%
Power Play
63.8% (210)
57.1% (7)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (172)
45.9% (98)
+2.4%
On power play, Barkov has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nash shoots right. Barkov is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (533).
Barkov shoots left. Nash is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (280).
Home / Away
Barkov
Nash
Home
59.2% (557)
56.3% (183)
Away
55.1% (695)
48.6% (214)
By Period
Barkov
Nash
P1
56.7%
58.9%
P2
54.8%
51.0%
P3
59.7%
46.5%
OT
55.6%
100.0%
Final 5 min
59.4%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
56.9%
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2021 | 3 | 11:04 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Dec 30, 2021 | 2 | 10:35 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Dec 30, 2021 | 2 | 10:29 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Dec 30, 2021 | 1 | 10:34 | Defensive | Riley Nash |