Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.7% vs 54.3%). Look for Bozak on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Barkov wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 53.5% vs Bozak 53.9% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barkov 51.9%
Defensive zone
Barkov 52.5%
Neutral zone
Barkov 54.3%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 52.4%
52.4%
47.6%
Barkov
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Barkov
Bozak
Last 8: Barkov 2-6 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Barkov
Bozak
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
3
Barkov
Bozak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
1
Barkov
Bozak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (1,377)
55.4% (719)
-0.9%
Power Play
54.7% (340)
45.1% (51)
+9.6%
Penalty Kill
47.3% (222)
50.0% (60)
-2.7%
On power play, Barkov has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Barkov is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (717).
Barkov shoots left. Bozak is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Barkov
Bozak
Home
54.5% (948)
55.5% (443)
Away
52.9% (991)
53.0% (387)
By Period
Barkov
Bozak
P1
55.2%
53.3%
P2
54.2%
54.7%
P3
52.3%
55.4%
OT
43.8%
40.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
53.7%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2019 | 2 | 03:49 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 3 | 19:56 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 3 | 19:26 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 3 | 18:51 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 3 | 14:34 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 3 | 05:46 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 2 | 18:38 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 2 | 14:23 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |