Scouting Report
Tyler Toffoli holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Chiasson wins 27.6% vs right-shot opponents — Toffoli shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Chiasson 39.8% vs Toffoli 43.1% (-4.5%)
Offensive zone
Chiasson 53.1%
Defensive zone
Toffoli 54.2%
Neutral zone
Toffoli 52.1%
Result
Tyler Toffoli favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Chiasson
Toffoli
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Chiasson
Toffoli
Edge
Even Strength
34.3% (213)
41.5% (275)
-7.2%
Power Play
43.1% (72)
45.0% (40)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
26.3% (19)
+10.1%
On penalty kill, Chiasson has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toffoli shoots right. Chiasson is 27.6% vs right-shot opponents (76).
Chiasson shoots right. Toffoli is 38.9% vs right-shot opponents (108).
Home / Away
Chiasson
Toffoli
Home
36.0% (150)
44.9% (156)
Away
36.9% (157)
37.6% (178)
By Period
Chiasson
Toffoli
P1
42.3%
47.4%
P2
33.3%
40.4%
P3
34.5%
32.9%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
35.7%
33.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Chiasson
30.0%▼
32.0%
36.5%
Toffoli
40.0%▼
42.5%
41.0%