Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Galchenyuk wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Galchenyuk 46.6% vs Pavelski 52.9% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Galchenyuk 83.0%
Defensive zone
Galchenyuk 65.0%
Neutral zone
Galchenyuk 73.7%
Result
Alex Galchenyuk favored at 75.8%
75.8%
24.2%
Galchenyuk
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Galchenyuk
Pavelski
Last 5: Galchenyuk 1-4 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
2
Galchenyuk
Pavelski
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Galchenyuk
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Galchenyuk
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (314)
54.0% (730)
-5.9%
Power Play
39.8% (93)
57.1% (156)
-17.3%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (4)
41.7% (103)
-41.7%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +41.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Galchenyuk is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (152).
Galchenyuk shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Home / Away
Galchenyuk
Pavelski
Home
50.9% (214)
55.2% (458)
Away
40.1% (197)
51.4% (531)
By Period
Galchenyuk
Pavelski
P1
44.8%
54.0%
P2
45.7%
54.5%
P3
46.3%
50.5%
OT
66.7%
60.0%
Final 5 min
46.5%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Galchenyuk
50.0%▼
52.5%
45.7%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2019 | 3 | 11:23 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 1 | 19:55 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 23, 2018 | 3 | 01:47 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 3 | 17:13 | Offensive | Alex Galchenyuk |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 2 | 06:30 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |