Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +16.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Killorn wins 38.1% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Killorn 40.2% vs Spezza 54.7% (-16.1%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Killorn 89.8%
Defensive zone
Killorn 88.8%
Neutral zone
Killorn 90.4%
Result
Alex Killorn favored at 89.6%
89.6%
10.4%
Killorn
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Killorn
Spezza
Last 10: Killorn 2-8 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
4
Killorn
Spezza
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
2
Killorn
Spezza
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
2
Killorn
Spezza
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Killorn
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
38.5% (480)
54.4% (7,990)
-15.9%
Power Play
50.6% (87)
56.8% (1,726)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
25.3% (75)
52.7% (643)
-27.4%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +27.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Killorn is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (270).
Killorn shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Home / Away
Killorn
Spezza
Home
38.9% (303)
56.8% (5,066)
Away
38.3% (339)
52.7% (5,332)
By Period
Killorn
Spezza
P1
35.3%
55.7%
P2
42.8%
54.4%
P3
37.8%
54.1%
OT
27.3%
51.5%
Final 5 min
41.4%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Killorn
28.0%▼
33.5%
38.6%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2016 | 3 | 08:23 | Offensive | Alex Killorn |
| Mar 17, 2016 | 1 | 04:15 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 5, 2015 | 2 | 05:04 | Defensive | Alex Killorn |
| Mar 20, 2014 | 3 | 06:36 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 20, 2014 | 3 | 03:07 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 20, 2014 | 2 | 13:42 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 20, 2014 | 2 | 05:43 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 30, 2014 | 3 | 01:43 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 30, 2014 | 2 | 02:46 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 5, 2013 | 1 | 07:06 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |