Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +15.6% FO% edge overall. Killorn wins 38.1% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Killorn 40.2% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-15.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Killorn 80.8%
Defensive zone
Killorn 71.8%
Neutral zone
Killorn 83.9%
Result
Alex Killorn favored at 80.1%
80.1%
19.9%
Killorn
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Killorn
Pavelski
Last 8: Killorn 2-6 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Killorn
Pavelski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Killorn
Pavelski
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Killorn
Pavelski
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Killorn
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
38.5% (480)
53.6% (8,791)
-15.1%
Power Play
50.6% (87)
58.2% (2,122)
-7.6%
Penalty Kill
25.3% (75)
50.9% (1,138)
-25.6%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +25.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Killorn is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (270).
Killorn shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Killorn
Pavelski
Home
38.9% (303)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
38.3% (339)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Killorn
Pavelski
P1
35.3%
53.5%
P2
42.8%
55.2%
P3
37.8%
53.9%
OT
27.3%
52.3%
Final 5 min
41.4%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Killorn
28.0%▼
33.5%
38.6%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2016 | 2 | 02:57 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 5, 2015 | 2 | 15:03 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 21, 2013 | 3 | 11:53 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 21, 2013 | 3 | 07:39 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 21, 2013 | 3 | 04:42 | Neutral | Alex Killorn |
| Nov 21, 2013 | 2 | 11:47 | Neutral | Alex Killorn |
| Nov 21, 2013 | 2 | 08:03 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 21, 2013 | 2 | 08:00 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |