Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Laferriere wins 39.3% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Laferriere 43.2% vs Aho 50.0% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Laferriere 56.7%
Defensive zone
Laferriere 80.1%
Neutral zone
Laferriere 68.3%
Result
Alex Laferriere favored at 62.5%
62.5%
37.5%
Laferriere
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Laferriere
Aho
Last 6: Laferriere 1-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
3
Laferriere
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
1
2
Laferriere
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Laferriere
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (322)
49.9% (851)
-8.0%
Power Play
52.9% (17)
53.5% (144)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
37.1% (70)
43.3% (60)
-6.2%
On even strength, Aho has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Laferriere is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (295).
Laferriere shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (364).
Home / Away
Laferriere
Aho
Home
40.3% (201)
53.2% (554)
Away
42.8% (208)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Laferriere
Aho
P1
33.1%
49.1%
P2
40.0%
50.8%
P3
48.2%
49.7%
OT
100.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
41.2%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Laferriere
44.0%▲
40.0%
41.6%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 16:49 | Neutral | Alex Laferriere |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 11:24 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 11:15 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 17:58 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 14:23 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 10:24 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |