Scouting Report
Alex Turcotte holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Poehling on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Turcotte wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 53.3% vs Poehling 47.4% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Poehling leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Turcotte 65.3%
Defensive zone
Poehling 81.6%
Neutral zone
Poehling 59.8%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 69.9%
30.1%
69.9%
Turcotte
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
8
(13 meetings)
5
8
Turcotte
Poehling
Last 10: Turcotte 4-6 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Turcotte
Poehling
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
2
5
Turcotte
Poehling
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (461)
49.8% (626)
+3.8%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
58.3% (12)
+11.7%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
38.2% (207)
+61.8%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +61.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Turcotte is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Turcotte shoots left. Poehling is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Home / Away
Turcotte
Poehling
Home
53.2% (263)
47.3% (404)
Away
55.0% (209)
46.9% (441)
By Period
Turcotte
Poehling
P1
57.2%
53.5%
P2
59.6%
39.4%
P3
44.1%
49.1%
Final 5 min
52.6%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
40.0%▼
53.0%
54.0%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
47.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 18:30 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 16:03 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 12:18 | Defensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 19:37 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 12:12 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 01:20 | Defensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 01:52 | Defensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 01:38 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 18:24 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 15:39 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 07:49 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 08:43 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 08:36 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |