Scouting Report
Alex Turcotte holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Poehling on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 51.3% vs Poehling 48.1% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Poehling leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Turcotte 65.8%
Defensive zone
Poehling 77.9%
Neutral zone
Poehling 54.7%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 66.3%
33.7%
66.3%
Turcotte
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Turcotte
Poehling
Last 10: Turcotte 4-6 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
3
4
Turcotte
Poehling
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
2
5
Turcotte
Poehling
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (656)
49.4% (2,726)
+1.7%
Power Play
61.9% (21)
51.6% (93)
+10.3%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
41.6% (623)
+58.4%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +58.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Turcotte is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (442).
Turcotte shoots left. Poehling is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,301).
Home / Away
Turcotte
Poehling
Home
51.7% (346)
49.3% (1,688)
Away
51.2% (332)
46.9% (1,754)
By Period
Turcotte
Poehling
P1
53.8%
50.9%
P2
53.8%
47.0%
P3
46.5%
46.9%
Final 5 min
47.6%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
40.0%▼
53.0%
51.5%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 18:30 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 16:03 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 12:18 | Defensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 19:37 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 12:12 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 01:20 | Defensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 01:52 | Defensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 01:38 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 18:24 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 15:39 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 07:49 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 08:43 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 08:36 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 2 | 15:15 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |