Scouting Report
Alex Turcotte holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Turcotte on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Turcotte wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 53.3% vs Gourde 46.0% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Turcotte 87.3%
Defensive zone
Turcotte 50.3%
Neutral zone
Turcotte 63.9%
Result
Alex Turcotte favored at 73.9%
73.9%
26.1%
Turcotte
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Turcotte
Gourde
Last 7: Turcotte 5-2 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Turcotte
3
0
Turcotte
Gourde
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Turcotte
Gourde
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (461)
47.2% (654)
+6.4%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
45.0% (20)
+25.0%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
32.2% (87)
+67.8%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +67.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Turcotte is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Turcotte shoots left. Gourde is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (501).
Home / Away
Turcotte
Gourde
Home
53.2% (263)
44.1% (322)
Away
55.0% (209)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Turcotte
Gourde
P1
57.2%
42.4%
P2
59.6%
49.8%
P3
44.1%
44.3%
Final 5 min
52.6%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
40.0%▼
53.0%
54.0%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 19:15 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 16:41 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 18:07 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 05:53 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 15:39 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 08:12 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 03:34 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |