Scouting Report
Alex Turcotte holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Turcotte on neutral-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Turcotte wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Ostapchuk shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 53.3% vs Ostapchuk 50.2% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Turcotte 74.4%
Defensive zone
Ostapchuk 56.3%
Neutral zone
Turcotte 54.3%
Result
Alex Turcotte favored at 55.3%
55.3%
44.7%
Turcotte
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Turcotte
Ostapchuk
Last 9: Turcotte 5-4 Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Turcotte
1
0
Turcotte
Ostapchuk
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ostapchuk
0
1
Turcotte
Ostapchuk
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Turcotte
4
3
Turcotte
Ostapchuk
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (461)
51.7% (300)
+1.9%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
33.3% (3)
+36.7%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
43.6% (55)
+56.4%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +56.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Turcotte is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Turcotte shoots left. Ostapchuk is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (250).
Home / Away
Turcotte
Ostapchuk
Home
53.2% (263)
49.1% (161)
Away
55.0% (209)
51.3% (197)
By Period
Turcotte
Ostapchuk
P1
57.2%
50.0%
P2
59.6%
45.7%
P3
44.1%
55.0%
Final 5 min
52.6%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
40.0%▼
53.0%
54.0%
Ostapchuk
44.0%▼
48.5%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | 3 | 05:38 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 11:24 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 1 | 00:09 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 03:04 | Defensive | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 19:50 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 02:33 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |