Scouting Report
Derek Roy holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Cogliano wins 39.6% vs left-shot opponents — Roy shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cogliano 41.2% vs Roy 47.4% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Roy leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Cogliano 50.2%
Defensive zone
Cogliano 75.4%
Neutral zone
Cogliano 67.4%
Result
Andrew Cogliano favored at 64.2%
64.2%
35.8%
Cogliano
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Cogliano
Roy
Last 10: Cogliano 4-6 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cogliano
3
0
Cogliano
Roy
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
2
Cogliano
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
1
5
Cogliano
Roy
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cogliano
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
41.7% (1,486)
46.4% (3,031)
-4.7%
Power Play
42.0% (88)
53.6% (560)
-11.6%
Penalty Kill
38.8% (502)
46.8% (267)
-8.0%
On power play, Roy has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots left. Cogliano is 39.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,400).
Cogliano shoots left. Roy is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,462).
Home / Away
Cogliano
Roy
Home
43.4% (1,069)
49.5% (1,982)
Away
38.1% (1,034)
45.1% (1,897)
By Period
Cogliano
Roy
P1
41.2%
47.6%
P2
37.7%
46.2%
P3
43.6%
48.5%
OT
41.5%
43.1%
Final 5 min
38.9%
47.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cogliano
30.0%▼
36.5%
40.8%
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2013 | 2 | 11:08 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Apr 25, 2013 | 2 | 10:58 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Apr 25, 2013 | 2 | 03:18 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Apr 25, 2013 | 2 | 00:05 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Apr 25, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Apr 25, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Apr 1, 2013 | 3 | 11:08 | Offensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Feb 29, 2012 | 2 | 00:24 | Offensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Feb 29, 2012 | 1 | 06:15 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 2 | 11:16 | Offensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Oct 7, 2011 | 2 | 05:58 | Defensive | Derek Roy |