Scouting Report
Martin Erat holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Erat on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Cogliano wins 40.3% vs left-shot opponents — Erat shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cogliano 42.3% vs Erat 47.9% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Erat 63.2%
Defensive zone
Cogliano 77.9%
Neutral zone
Cogliano 59.3%
Result
Martin Erat favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Cogliano
Erat
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Cogliano
Erat
Last 7: Cogliano 3-4 Erat
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Erat
1
3
Cogliano
Erat
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cogliano
1
0
Cogliano
Erat
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cogliano
Erat
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cogliano
Erat
Edge
Even Strength
41.6% (810)
43.8% (16)
-2.2%
Power Play
43.9% (66)
48.0% (25)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
40.9% (215)
0.0% (3)
+40.9%
On penalty kill, Cogliano has a +40.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Erat shoots left. Cogliano is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Cogliano shoots left. Erat is 38.2% vs left-shot opponents (34).
Home / Away
Cogliano
Erat
Home
43.7% (572)
50.0% (20)
Away
39.4% (536)
37.5% (24)
By Period
Cogliano
Erat
P1
39.2%
50.0%
P2
37.4%
44.4%
P3
48.2%
38.9%
Final 5 min
39.4%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cogliano
30.0%▼
36.5%
41.6%
Erat
38.0%▼
43.5%
43.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2011 | 1 | 09:24 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 1 | 06:32 | Offensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Feb 7, 2011 | 3 | 16:34 | Offensive | Martin Erat |
| Feb 7, 2011 | 3 | 16:26 | Offensive | Martin Erat |
| Feb 7, 2011 | 2 | 16:38 | Offensive | Martin Erat |
| Jan 23, 2011 | 2 | 03:37 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Jan 23, 2011 | 1 | 02:29 | Neutral | Martin Erat |