Scouting Report
Martin Erat holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Erat on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Cogliano wins 39.6% vs left-shot opponents — Erat shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cogliano 41.2% vs Erat 46.8% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Erat 76.3%
Defensive zone
Cogliano 75.7%
Neutral zone
Cogliano 55.8%
Result
Martin Erat favored at 59.7%
40.3%
59.7%
Cogliano
Erat
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Cogliano
Erat
Last 7: Cogliano 3-4 Erat
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Erat
1
3
Cogliano
Erat
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cogliano
1
0
Cogliano
Erat
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cogliano
Erat
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cogliano
Erat
Edge
Even Strength
41.7% (1,486)
46.7% (321)
-5.0%
Power Play
42.0% (88)
45.5% (101)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
38.8% (502)
41.4% (29)
-2.6%
On even strength, Erat has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Erat shoots left. Cogliano is 39.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,400).
Cogliano shoots left. Erat is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Home / Away
Cogliano
Erat
Home
43.4% (1,069)
53.2% (252)
Away
38.1% (1,034)
37.2% (199)
By Period
Cogliano
Erat
P1
41.2%
43.4%
P2
37.7%
45.8%
P3
43.6%
50.0%
OT
41.5%
16.7%
Final 5 min
38.9%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cogliano
30.0%▼
36.5%
40.8%
Erat
38.0%▼
43.5%
46.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2011 | 1 | 09:24 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 1 | 06:32 | Offensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Feb 7, 2011 | 3 | 16:34 | Offensive | Martin Erat |
| Feb 7, 2011 | 3 | 16:26 | Offensive | Martin Erat |
| Feb 7, 2011 | 2 | 16:38 | Offensive | Martin Erat |
| Jan 23, 2011 | 2 | 03:37 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Jan 23, 2011 | 1 | 02:29 | Neutral | Martin Erat |