Scouting Report
Sam Gagner holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Cogliano on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Cogliano wins 43.2% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cogliano 41.2% vs Gagner 46.0% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Gagner leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Gagner 73.4%
Defensive zone
Cogliano 71.4%
Neutral zone
Cogliano 51.8%
Result
Sam Gagner favored at 52.4%
47.6%
52.4%
Cogliano
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
8
(16 meetings)
8
8
Cogliano
Gagner
Last 10: Cogliano 6-4 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cogliano
3
2
Cogliano
Gagner
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
1
2
Cogliano
Gagner
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Cogliano
Gagner
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cogliano
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
41.7% (1,486)
45.4% (4,699)
-3.7%
Power Play
42.0% (88)
51.5% (928)
-9.5%
Penalty Kill
38.8% (502)
35.0% (226)
+3.8%
On power play, Gagner has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Cogliano is 43.2% vs right-shot opponents (703).
Cogliano shoots left. Gagner is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,184).
Home / Away
Cogliano
Gagner
Home
43.4% (1,069)
48.7% (3,025)
Away
38.1% (1,034)
43.0% (2,843)
By Period
Cogliano
Gagner
P1
41.2%
44.6%
P2
37.7%
46.1%
P3
43.6%
47.3%
OT
41.5%
42.0%
Final 5 min
38.9%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cogliano
30.0%▼
36.5%
40.8%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2021 | 1 | 07:49 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 2 | 06:10 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Apr 11, 2015 | 3 | 17:31 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 11, 2015 | 1 | 16:06 | Offensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Apr 11, 2015 | 1 | 08:42 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Apr 6, 2014 | 1 | 04:02 | Offensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Apr 22, 2013 | 1 | 12:41 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 8, 2013 | 3 | 07:48 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Apr 8, 2013 | 2 | 12:06 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Apr 1, 2012 | 1 | 15:38 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 5, 2012 | 1 | 17:35 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 5, 2012 | 1 | 17:18 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 13, 2012 | 3 | 18:09 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 13, 2012 | 3 | 09:02 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 13, 2012 | 1 | 10:16 | Offensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Jan 13, 2012 | 1 | 04:13 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |