Scouting Report
Sam Gagner holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Gagner on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Cogliano wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cogliano 43.6% vs Gagner 47.9% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cogliano 62.7%
Defensive zone
Cogliano 75.3%
Neutral zone
Cogliano 66.6%
Result
Andrew Cogliano favored at 68.0%
68.0%
32.0%
Cogliano
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Cogliano
Gagner
Last 7: Cogliano 2-5 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cogliano
Gagner
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
2
Cogliano
Gagner
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gagner
1
2
Cogliano
Gagner
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cogliano
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (308)
47.6% (599)
-3.4%
Power Play
46.7% (15)
47.7% (86)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (53)
60.0% (5)
-24.2%
On penalty kill, Gagner has a +24.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Cogliano is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Cogliano shoots left. Gagner is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (515).
Home / Away
Cogliano
Gagner
Home
50.0% (188)
49.5% (331)
Away
34.3% (198)
45.9% (370)
By Period
Cogliano
Gagner
P1
44.0%
47.7%
P2
41.3%
43.9%
P3
40.5%
51.8%
OT
44.4%
44.4%
Final 5 min
42.5%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cogliano
30.0%▼
36.5%
42.0%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2012 | 1 | 15:38 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 5, 2012 | 1 | 17:35 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 5, 2012 | 1 | 17:18 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 13, 2012 | 3 | 18:09 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 13, 2012 | 3 | 09:02 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 13, 2012 | 1 | 10:16 | Offensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Jan 13, 2012 | 1 | 04:13 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |