Scouting Report
Sam Gagner holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Ebbett on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Ebbett wins 42.5% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ebbett 44.2% vs Gagner 46.0% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gagner 71.9%
Defensive zone
Ebbett 58.4%
Neutral zone
Gagner 57.5%
Result
Sam Gagner favored at 52.8%
47.2%
52.8%
Ebbett
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Ebbett
Gagner
Last 7: Ebbett 4-3 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ebbett
1
0
Ebbett
Gagner
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ebbett
2
1
Ebbett
Gagner
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gagner
1
2
Ebbett
Gagner
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ebbett
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
42.8% (570)
45.4% (4,699)
-2.6%
Power Play
50.0% (26)
51.5% (928)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (46)
35.0% (226)
+8.5%
On penalty kill, Ebbett has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Ebbett is 42.5% vs right-shot opponents (179).
Ebbett shoots left. Gagner is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,184).
Home / Away
Ebbett
Gagner
Home
45.9% (314)
48.7% (3,025)
Away
40.8% (331)
43.0% (2,843)
By Period
Ebbett
Gagner
P1
48.7%
44.6%
P2
41.9%
46.1%
P3
39.7%
47.3%
OT
50.0%
42.0%
Final 5 min
38.0%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ebbett
42.0%▼
43.5%
43.3%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2013 | 3 | 15:47 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 27, 2013 | 3 | 14:16 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 27, 2013 | 2 | 15:27 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 27, 2013 | 1 | 12:31 | Offensive | Andrew Ebbett |
| Apr 4, 2013 | 2 | 13:12 | Neutral | Andrew Ebbett |
| Apr 4, 2013 | 1 | 13:15 | Defensive | Andrew Ebbett |
| Jan 20, 2013 | 2 | 06:34 | Defensive | Andrew Ebbett |