Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.1% vs 47.4%). Look for Shaw on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Shaw 48.2% vs Roy 47.4% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Shaw leads 13-7 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Shaw 54.3%
Defensive zone
Roy 65.5%
Neutral zone
Shaw 52.7%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
Shaw
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
7
(20 meetings)
13
7
Shaw
Roy
Last 10: Shaw 7-3 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Shaw
4
2
Shaw
Roy
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Shaw
Roy
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Shaw
6
2
Shaw
Roy
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Shaw
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (3,088)
46.4% (3,031)
+1.5%
Power Play
50.9% (407)
53.6% (560)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (57)
46.8% (267)
-4.7%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots left. Shaw is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,540).
Shaw shoots right. Roy is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Home / Away
Shaw
Roy
Home
50.3% (1,812)
49.5% (1,982)
Away
45.9% (1,740)
45.1% (1,897)
By Period
Shaw
Roy
P1
48.5%
47.6%
P2
47.9%
46.2%
P3
48.2%
48.5%
OT
41.9%
43.1%
Final 5 min
46.2%
47.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Shaw
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.1%
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2015 | 3 | 16:40 | Defensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Mar 6, 2015 | 3 | 14:31 | Defensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Mar 6, 2015 | 1 | 03:06 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Jan 9, 2015 | 3 | 16:25 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 3 | 16:24 | Defensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 3 | 09:20 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 3 | 17:49 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 2 | 01:25 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Oct 9, 2013 | 3 | 10:37 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Oct 9, 2013 | 3 | 05:19 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Oct 9, 2013 | 3 | 05:12 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Oct 9, 2013 | 2 | 01:51 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Oct 9, 2013 | 1 | 04:57 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Oct 9, 2013 | 1 | 01:38 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Apr 22, 2013 | 3 | 13:08 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Apr 22, 2013 | 3 | 04:04 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Mar 16, 2013 | 3 | 09:59 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Jan 24, 2013 | 3 | 17:08 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Jan 18, 2012 | 1 | 15:41 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Jan 18, 2012 | 1 | 02:12 | Defensive | Derek Roy |